Fluminense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fluminense FC 41.6% · Draw 31.1% · EC Bahia 27.3% Why Fluminense FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1510 vs 1514) — winner depends on context. Recent: Fluminense FC 3W-5D-2L · EC Bahia 2W-5D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fluminense FC +0.1, EC Bahia -0.1. Form depth Fluminense FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Fluminense FC on a 3-draw streak. EC Bahia on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Fluminense FC 1.4, EC Bahia 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Fluminense FC 0W, 2D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-0, 3-3. Calibration Raw model: 44.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.