Cruzeiro EC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cruzeiro EC 43.5% · Draw 28.9% · Botafogo FR 27.7% Why Cruzeiro EC is favoured Cruzeiro EC's Elo (1519) is +13 over Botafogo FR (1506); low confidence. Recent: Cruzeiro EC 5W-4D-1L · Botafogo FR 3W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cruzeiro EC +0.6, Botafogo FR +0.4. Form depth Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Botafogo FR: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Cruzeiro EC 1.4, Botafogo FR 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Cruzeiro EC 0W, 5D, Botafogo FR 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 2-2, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 45.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.