Corinthians has been hit with a fourth transfer ban in two months, preventing them from registering new players due to unpaid transfer fees for Charles to Midtjylland, amounting to approximately R$6 million.
Corinthians hit with fourth transfer ban in two months after failing to pay Charles fee - OneFootball →Corinthians is facing significant off-field issues, including a recent fourth transfer ban due to unpaid fees and a critical contract dispute with key player Memphis Depay, who is currently unavailable. Both teams also have several key players either injured or doubtful for the match.
Memphis Depay is in a critical contract dispute with Corinthians, with his current deal expiring soon. He is pushing for a three-year contract to spread out a significant debt owed by the club, while Corinthians has offered two years, leading to stalled negotiations and his unavailability for the match.
Bahia is monitoring the fitness of Ramos Mingo (hip injury) and Kike Olivera (knee discomfort), both of whom remain doubtful. Luciano Juba is expected to return after training normally, and Marco Moreno has rejoined the squad and could be a substitute. Léo Vieira and Caio Alexandre are receiving medical treatment. The predicted lineup includes Ronaldo in goal, a defense of Román Gómez, David Duarte, Marcos Victor, and Juba; a midfield of Acevedo, Erick or Éverton Ribeiro, and Rodrigo Nestor; and a front three of Pulga, Willian José, and Ademir.
Corinthians will be without Memphis Depay due to ongoing contract negotiations and post-World Cup recovery. Kayke is a long-term absentee with a serious knee ligament injury. Raniele remains doubtful after a knee problem, though he has trained individually. Vitinho, João Pedro, and Hugo are also out with injuries. Rodrigo Garro is available again after serving a one-match suspension and is expected to return to the starting lineup. The predicted lineup features Hugo Souza in goal, a defensive line of Matheuzinho, Gabriel Paulista, Gustavo Henrique, and Matheus Bidu; a midfield with Allan or Raniele, André, Kaio César, Rodrigo Garro, and Breno Bidon; and Yuri Alberto leading the attack.
EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 46.3% · Draw 29.1% · SC Corinthians Paulista 24.6% Why EC Bahia is favoured Elo essentially level (1514 vs 1518) — winner depends on context. Recent: EC Bahia 3W-4D-3L · SC Corinthians Paulista 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.0, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.4. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (EC Bahia 1.4, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments SC Corinthians Paulista has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours EC Bahia on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 3D, SC Corinthians Paulista 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.