Fluminense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fluminense FC 34.5% · Draw 25.1% · RB Bragantino 40.4% Why RB Bragantino is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1539) is +29 over Fluminense FC (1510); low confidence. Recent: Fluminense FC 4W-3D-3L · RB Bragantino 7W-0D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fluminense FC +0.0, RB Bragantino +1.0. Form depth Fluminense FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). RB Bragantino: avg 1.9 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). RB Bragantino on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Fluminense FC 1.1, RB Bragantino 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Fluminense FC 0W, 2D, RB Bragantino 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-2, 2-1, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.