SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 54.6% · Draw 24.1% · Chapecoense AF 21.3% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1543) is +62 over Chapecoense AF (1481); low confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 5W-4D-1L · Chapecoense AF 0W-2D-8L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +0.9, Chapecoense AF -1.5. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). SE Palmeiras on a 2-match winning streak. Chapecoense AF on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.9, Chapecoense AF 0.7) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 1D, Chapecoense AF 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 0-2, 3-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.