Grêmio FBPA scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Grêmio FBPA 53.7% · Draw 25.4% · SC Corinthians Paulista 20.8% Why Grêmio FBPA is favoured Grêmio FBPA's Elo (1501) is +19 over SC Corinthians Paulista (1482); low confidence. Recent: Grêmio FBPA 2W-4D-4L · SC Corinthians Paulista 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Grêmio FBPA -0.3, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.0. Form depth Grêmio FBPA: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (Grêmio FBPA 0.9, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments SC Corinthians Paulista has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Grêmio FBPA on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Grêmio FBPA 0W, 5D, SC Corinthians Paulista 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 1-1, 0-3. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.