EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 46.3% · Draw 25.5% · Botafogo FR 28.2% Why EC Bahia is favoured Botafogo FR's Elo (1505) is +16 over EC Bahia (1489); low confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 2W-3D-5L · Botafogo FR 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia -0.4, Botafogo FR +0.3. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Botafogo FR: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (EC Bahia 1.6, Botafogo FR 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Botafogo FR has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours EC Bahia on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 2D, Botafogo FR 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-0, 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.