Botafogo FR scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Botafogo FR 50.7% · Draw 25.7% · SC Corinthians Paulista 23.6% Why Botafogo FR is favoured Elo essentially level (1491 vs 1501) — winner depends on context. Recent: Botafogo FR 4W-3D-3L · SC Corinthians Paulista 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Botafogo FR +0.1, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.6. Form depth Botafogo FR: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Botafogo FR 1.3, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Botafogo FR 0W, 3D, SC Corinthians Paulista 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-1, 2-1. Context Botafogo FR has 18 more days of rest (Botafogo FR 59d, SC Corinthians Paulista 41d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.