Casa Pia AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Casa Pia AC 46.4% · Draw 25.6% · Rio Ave FC 28.0% Why Casa Pia AC is favoured Casa Pia AC's Elo (1500) is +14 over Rio Ave FC (1485); low confidence. Recent: Casa Pia AC 1W-4D-5L · Rio Ave FC 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Casa Pia AC -0.8, Rio Ave FC -0.1. Form depth Casa Pia AC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Rio Ave FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Casa Pia AC 0.8, Rio Ave FC 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Rio Ave FC has a stronger recent record (40% vs 10%) — model favours Casa Pia AC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Casa Pia AC 0W, 3D, Rio Ave FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 2-1, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.