FC Porto scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Porto 47.3% · Draw 25.4% · CD Santa Clara 27.3% Why FC Porto is favoured CD Santa Clara's Elo (1515) is +20 over FC Porto (1495); low confidence. Recent: FC Porto 7W-2D-1L · CD Santa Clara 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Porto +1.0, CD Santa Clara +0.3. Form depth FC Porto: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). CD Santa Clara: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (FC Porto 1.6, CD Santa Clara 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Porto 0W, 2D, CD Santa Clara 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 0-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.