CD Santa Clara scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Santa Clara 51.4% · Draw 26.0% · CD Nacional 22.6% Why CD Santa Clara is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Santa Clara 4W-4D-2L · CD Nacional 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CD Santa Clara +0.1, CD Nacional -0.4. Form depth CD Santa Clara: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). CD Nacional: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (CD Santa Clara 1.3, CD Nacional 1.0) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CD Santa Clara 0W, 2D, CD Nacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 1-0, 2-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.