AVS scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AVS 41.3% · Draw 25.7% · FC Porto 33.0% Why AVS is favoured Recent: AVS 1W-6D-3L · FC Porto 8W-2D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AVS -0.6, FC Porto +1.3. Form depth AVS: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). FC Porto: avg 2.1 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). FC Porto on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (AVS 0.7, FC Porto 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments FC Porto has a stronger recent record (80% vs 10%) — model favours AVS on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.