Sporting Clube de Portugal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Portugal 52.7% · Draw 23.9% · Vitória SC 23.4% Why Sporting Clube de Portugal is favoured Recent: Sporting Clube de Portugal 4W-3D-3L · Vitória SC 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Portugal +0.6, Vitória SC +0.2. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Portugal 0W, 1D, Vitória SC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-4, 2-0, 4-4.