RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Celta de Vigo 59.3% · Draw 23.6% · Sevilla FC 17.1% Why RC Celta de Vigo is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1539) is +81 over Sevilla FC (1458); high confidence. Recent: RC Celta de Vigo 3W-2D-5L · Sevilla FC 4W-0D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RC Celta de Vigo -0.3, Sevilla FC -0.6. Form depth RC Celta de Vigo: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Sevilla FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (RC Celta de Vigo 1.6, Sevilla FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RC Celta de Vigo 0W, 4D, Sevilla FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 3-2, 1-0.