Elche CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Elche CF 47.5% · Draw 25.6% · Getafe CF 26.9% Why Elche CF is favoured Elche CF's Elo (1458) is +13 over Getafe CF (1445); high confidence. Recent: Elche CF 4W-1D-5L · Getafe CF 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Elche CF -0.4, Getafe CF +0.2. Form depth Elche CF: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Getafe CF: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Elche CF 1.1, Getafe CF 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Elche CF 0W, 3D, Getafe CF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 0-1.