RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Celta de Vigo 58.9% · Draw 23.0% · Levante UD 18.1% Why RC Celta de Vigo is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1554) is +99 over Levante UD (1455); high confidence. Recent: RC Celta de Vigo 4W-1D-5L · Levante UD 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RC Celta de Vigo -0.2, Levante UD +0.2. Form depth RC Celta de Vigo: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Levante UD: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). RC Celta de Vigo on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (RC Celta de Vigo 1.4, Levante UD 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — RC Celta de Vigo 0W, 2D, Levante UD 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-1, 0-2.