Sevilla FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sevilla FC 49.3% · Draw 25.9% · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 24.8% Why Sevilla FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1437 vs 1439) — winner depends on context. Recent: Sevilla FC 3W-2D-5L · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0W-4D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sevilla FC -0.6, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona -1.0. Form depth Sevilla FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Sevilla FC 1.4, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1.2) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Sevilla FC 0W, 3D, RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-1, 0-2.