| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 8.6% | 11.68 | ||
| 1–1 | 8.4% | 11.94 | ||
| 2–2 | 7.2% | 13.98 | ||
| 1–2 | 7.0% | 14.29 | ||
| 3–1 | 5.8% | 17.15 | ||
| 2–0 | 5.1% | 19.53 | ||
| 1–0 | 5.0% | 19.96 | ||
| 3–2 | 4.9% | 20.52 |
Borussia Dortmund scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 30.2% | 32.9% | -8% | 3.31 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 36.5% | 33.4% | +9% | 2.74 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 21.5% | 22.7% | -5% | 4.66 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 24.5% | 23.0% | +7% | 4.08 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Dortmund 61.9% · Draw 22.4% · Eintracht Frankfurt 15.7% Why Borussia Dortmund is favoured Borussia Dortmund's Elo (1659) is +119 over Eintracht Frankfurt (1540); high confidence. Recent: Borussia Dortmund 5W-0D-5L · Eintracht Frankfurt 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Borussia Dortmund +0.3, Eintracht Frankfurt -0.1. Form depth Borussia Dortmund: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Eintracht Frankfurt: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Borussia Dortmund 1.5, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Borussia Dortmund 0W, 2D, Eintracht Frankfurt 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 2-0, 2-0.