| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 7.6% | 13.11 | ||
| 2–2 | 7.2% | 13.89 | ||
| 1–1 | 6.5% | 15.44 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.1% | 16.37 | ||
| 3–1 | 6.0% | 16.69 | ||
| 3–2 | 5.7% | 17.69 | ||
| 2–3 | 4.5% | 22.10 | ||
| 2–0 | 4.0% | 24.72 |
FC Augsburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 34.8% | 37.3% | -7% | 2.87 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 41.1% | 38.6% | +6% | 2.43 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 23.4% | 24.2% | -3% | 4.27 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 26.2% | 25.1% | +4% | 3.82 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Augsburg 49.7% · Draw 25.8% · Borussia Mönchengladbach 24.5% Why FC Augsburg is favoured Elo essentially level (1468 vs 1461) — winner depends on context. Recent: FC Augsburg 4W-3D-3L · Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W-4D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Augsburg +0.0, Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.1. Form depth FC Augsburg: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (FC Augsburg 1.5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — FC Augsburg 0W, 1D, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 0-3, 2-1.