| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–4MODE | 6.2% | 16.18 | ||
| 1–4 | 5.7% | 17.58 | ||
| 2–5 | 5.6% | 17.97 | ||
| 2–3 | 5.5% | 18.20 | ||
| 1–5 | 5.1% | 19.53 | ||
| 1–3 | 5.1% | 19.77 | ||
| 3–4 | 4.5% | 22.33 | ||
| 2–6 | 4.2% | 23.97 |
VfL Wolfsburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 14.0% | 13.3% | +5% | 7.14 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 14.5% | 14.6% | -1% | 6.90 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 60.6% | 63.0% | -4% | 1.65 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 69.6% | 69.2% | +1% | 1.44 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities VfL Wolfsburg 5.4% · Draw 12.1% · FC Bayern München 82.6% Why FC Bayern München is favoured FC Bayern München's Elo (1890) is +465 over VfL Wolfsburg (1426); high confidence. Recent: VfL Wolfsburg 1W-3D-6L · FC Bayern München 7W-2D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: VfL Wolfsburg -1.0, FC Bayern München +1.4. Form depth VfL Wolfsburg: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). FC Bayern München: avg 3.4 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). VfL Wolfsburg on a 2-draw streak. FC Bayern München on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.3 total goals (VfL Wolfsburg 1.6, FC Bayern München 2.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — VfL Wolfsburg 0W, 1D, FC Bayern München 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 8-1, 3-2, 2-3.