| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–2MODE | 5.9% | 16.81 | ||
| 3–2 | 5.5% | 18.12 | ||
| 5–2 | 5.1% | 19.50 | ||
| 4–1 | 4.9% | 20.44 | ||
| 4–3 | 4.8% | 20.75 | ||
| 3–1 | 4.5% | 22.03 | ||
| 3–3 | 4.5% | 22.36 | ||
| 5–1 | 4.2% | 23.71 |
VfB Stuttgart scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 57.3% | 59.4% | -4% | 1.75 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 64.2% | 63.7% | +1% | 1.56 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 18.1% | 17.5% | +3% | 5.53 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 18.8% | 18.8% | -0% | 5.33 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities VfB Stuttgart 47.2% · Draw 24.3% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 28.5% Why VfB Stuttgart is favoured Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Elo (1665) is +56 over VfB Stuttgart (1609); high confidence. Recent: VfB Stuttgart 4W-4D-2L · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: VfB Stuttgart +0.8, Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.5. Form depth VfB Stuttgart: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Bayer 04 Leverkusen: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). VfB Stuttgart on a 2-draw streak. Bayer 04 Leverkusen on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (VfB Stuttgart 2.1, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — VfB Stuttgart 0W, 4D, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-4, 3-4, 0-0.