Newcastle United FC
vs West Ham United FC_

Most likely scorelines

• 1–1MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  10.7%

  Fair odds

  9.32

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  9.7%

  Fair odds

  10.29

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  9.0%

  Fair odds

  11.17

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  8.1%

  Fair odds

  12.33

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  6.4%

  Fair odds

  15.55

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  5.9%

  Fair odds

  16.89

• 1–3+Save pick

  Prob

  5.9%

  Fair odds

  17.02

• 2–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.8%

  Fair odds

  17.16

Newcastle United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -6%

  Joint prob

  13.8%

  Naïve (book)

  14.8%

  Fair odds

  7.24

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +8%

  Joint prob

  15.8%

  Naïve (book)

  14.6%

  Fair odds

  6.34

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -12%

  Joint prob

  26.4%

  Naïve (book)

  30.2%

  Fair odds

  3.79

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +16%

  Joint prob

  34.6%

  Naïve (book)

  29.9%

  Fair odds

  2.89

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.