FC Volendam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Volendam 44.1% · Draw 25.6% · Telstar 1963 30.3% Why FC Volendam is favoured Telstar 1963's Elo (1500) is +15 over FC Volendam (1485); low confidence. Recent: FC Volendam 2W-2D-6L · Telstar 1963 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Volendam -0.7, Telstar 1963 +0.5. Form depth FC Volendam: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Telstar 1963: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (FC Volendam 1.1, Telstar 1963 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Telstar 1963 has a stronger recent record (50% vs 20%) — model favours FC Volendam on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — FC Volendam 0W, 5D, Telstar 1963 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.