Feyenoord Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Feyenoord Rotterdam 50.5% · Draw 25.5% · AZ 24.0% Why Feyenoord Rotterdam is favoured Feyenoord Rotterdam's Elo (1517) is +17 over AZ (1500); low confidence. Recent: Feyenoord Rotterdam 5W-4D-1L · AZ 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Feyenoord Rotterdam +0.4, AZ +0.6. Form depth Feyenoord Rotterdam: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). AZ: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Feyenoord Rotterdam on a 2-match winning streak. AZ on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Feyenoord Rotterdam 1.3, AZ 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Feyenoord Rotterdam 0W, 1D, AZ 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 0-1, 3-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.