Parma Calcio 1913 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Parma Calcio 1913 39.4% · Draw 23.8% · US Sassuolo Calcio 36.9% Why Parma Calcio 1913 is favoured US Sassuolo Calcio's Elo (1493) is +75 over Parma Calcio 1913 (1418); high confidence. Recent: Parma Calcio 1913 2W-3D-5L · US Sassuolo Calcio 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Parma Calcio 1913 -0.7, US Sassuolo Calcio -0.1. Form depth Parma Calcio 1913: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Parma Calcio 1913 on a 3-match losing streak. US Sassuolo Calcio on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Parma Calcio 1913 1.0, US Sassuolo Calcio 1.3) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Parma Calcio 1913 0W, 3D, US Sassuolo Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-3, 1-1.