Udinese Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Udinese Calcio 58.3% · Draw 24.1% · US Cremonese 17.6% Why Udinese Calcio is favoured Udinese Calcio's Elo (1477) is +62 over US Cremonese (1414); high confidence. Recent: Udinese Calcio 5W-3D-2L · US Cremonese 2W-1D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Udinese Calcio +1.0, US Cremonese -0.8. Form depth Udinese Calcio: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). US Cremonese: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Udinese Calcio on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Udinese Calcio 1.7, US Cremonese 0.8) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Udinese Calcio 0W, 6D, US Cremonese 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-0, 0-0.