| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–0MODE | 22.0% | 4.55 | ||
| 0–1 | 21.3% | 4.69 | ||
| 1–0 | 12.0% | 8.34 | ||
| 1–1 | 11.6% | 8.60 | ||
| 0–2 | 10.3% | 9.67 | ||
| 1–2 | 5.6% | 17.73 | ||
| 0–3 | 3.3% | 29.91 | ||
| 2–0 | 3.3% | 30.59 |
US Cremonese scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 4.2% | 5.3% | -21% | 23.96 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 4.9% | 3.9% | +24% | 20.58 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 8.7% | 11.7% | -26% | 11.52 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 13.0% | 8.7% | +49% | 7.68 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 33.6% | 28.3% | +18% | 2.98 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Cremonese 31.1% · Draw 22.6% · SS Lazio 46.4% Why SS Lazio is favoured SS Lazio's Elo (1536) is +115 over US Cremonese (1421); high confidence. Recent: US Cremonese 1W-2D-7L · SS Lazio 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: US Cremonese -1.3, SS Lazio +0.1. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — US Cremonese 0W, 2D, SS Lazio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 3-2, 0-4.