Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · AC Milan
To win
+$38.20
Total payout
$58.20
Joint prob
50.2%
Combined odds
2.91
Fair odds
1.99
Edge
+46.1%
Expected value: +$9.22 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.22 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Spreads and totals shown for reference only — model probabilities above are for the moneyline outcome, not points margin.
| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1MODE | 10.7% | 9.32 | ||
| 2–1 | 8.8% | 11.42 | ||
| 1–2 | 8.0% | 12.48 | ||
| 1–0 | 7.2% | 13.92 | ||
| 0–1 | 6.6% | 15.20 | ||
| 2–2 | 6.5% | 15.30 | ||
| 2–0 | 5.9% | 17.07 | ||
| 0–2 | 4.9% | 20.35 |
AC Milan scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 23.0% | 25.6% | -10% | 4.35 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 28.0% | 24.8% | +13% | 3.57 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 20.0% | 21.9% | -9% | 5.00 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 23.7% | 21.3% | +11% | 4.22 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 15.1% | 9.4% | +61% | 6.61 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.2% · fair market: 33.4% · edge: +50.2%
AC Milan 50.2% · Draw 26.0% · Juventus FC 23.8% +EV: home (50.2%)