Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Detroit Pistons
To win
+$0.20
Total payout
$20.20
Joint prob
81.3%
Combined odds
1.01
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
-17.9%
Expected value: $-3.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-3.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.3% · fair market: 50.2% · edge: +61.9%
Model probabilities Detroit Pistons 81.3% · Philadelphia 76ers 18.7% Why Detroit Pistons is favoured Detroit Pistons's Elo (1653) is +99 over Philadelphia 76ers (1554); high confidence. Recent: Detroit Pistons 0W-10L · Philadelphia 76ers 3W-7L (last 10). Point differential per game: Detroit Pistons -2.4, Philadelphia 76ers +5.7. Form depth Detroit Pistons: avg 16.8 pts scored, 19.2 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Philadelphia 76ers: avg 24.6 pts scored, 18.9 conceded per game (3/7 at home, 0/3 on the road). Detroit Pistons on a 10-match losing streak. Philadelphia 76ers on a 3-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Philadelphia 76ers has a stronger recent record (30% vs 0%) — model favours Detroit Pistons on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. +EV vs market home: model 81.3% vs market 50.2% (edge +61.9%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.