Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Atlanta Hawks
To win
+$10.20
Total payout
$30.20
Joint prob
84.3%
Combined odds
1.51
Fair odds
1.19
Edge
+27.3%
Expected value: +$5.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 84.3% · fair market: 64.3% · edge: +31.1%
Model probabilities Indiana Pacers 15.7% · Atlanta Hawks 84.3% Why Atlanta Hawks is favoured Atlanta Hawks's Elo (1565) is +297 over Indiana Pacers (1269); high confidence. Recent: Indiana Pacers 4W-6L · Atlanta Hawks 0W-10L (last 10). Point differential per game: Indiana Pacers -0.6, Atlanta Hawks -0.6. Form depth Indiana Pacers: avg 105.9 pts scored, 106.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Atlanta Hawks: avg 18.4 pts scored, 19.0 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Indiana Pacers on a 3-match losing streak. Atlanta Hawks on a 10-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Indiana Pacers has a stronger recent record (40% vs 0%) — model favours Atlanta Hawks on Elo despite Indiana Pacers's form. +EV vs market away: model 84.3% vs market 64.3% (edge +31.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).