Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Charlotte Hornets
To win
+$30.60
Total payout
$50.60
Joint prob
65.8%
Combined odds
2.53
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+66.5%
Expected value: +$13.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.8% · fair market: 38.3% · edge: +71.9%
Model probabilities Charlotte Hornets 65.8% · Detroit Pistons 34.2% Why Charlotte Hornets is favoured Detroit Pistons's Elo (1653) is +11 over Charlotte Hornets (1642); high confidence. Recent: Charlotte Hornets 2W-8L · Detroit Pistons 0W-10L (last 10). Point differential per game: Charlotte Hornets -9.5, Detroit Pistons -2.4. Form depth Charlotte Hornets: avg 99.4 pts scored, 108.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Detroit Pistons: avg 16.8 pts scored, 19.2 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Charlotte Hornets on a 2-match losing streak. Detroit Pistons on a 10-match losing streak. +EV vs market home: model 65.8% vs market 38.3% (edge +71.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).