Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Oklahoma City Thunder
To win
+$29.80
Total payout
$49.80
Joint prob
75.6%
Combined odds
2.49
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+88.4%
Expected value: +$17.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.6% · fair market: 39.0% · edge: +94.1%
Model probabilities Cleveland Cavaliers 24.4% · Oklahoma City Thunder 75.6% Why Oklahoma City Thunder is favoured Oklahoma City Thunder's Elo (1820) is +203 over Cleveland Cavaliers (1617); high confidence. Recent: Cleveland Cavaliers 0W-10L · Oklahoma City Thunder 2W-8L (last 10). Point differential per game: Cleveland Cavaliers -17.1, Oklahoma City Thunder -9.3. Form depth Cleveland Cavaliers: avg 103.6 pts scored, 120.7 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/7 on the road). Oklahoma City Thunder: avg 113.4 pts scored, 122.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Cleveland Cavaliers on a 10-match losing streak. Oklahoma City Thunder on a 2-match losing streak. +EV vs market away: model 75.6% vs market 39.0% (edge +94.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.