Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Indiana Pacers
To win
+$11.80
Total payout
$31.80
Joint prob
78.1%
Combined odds
1.59
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+24.1%
Expected value: +$4.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.1% · fair market: 60.9% · edge: +28.1%
Model probabilities Indiana Pacers 78.1% · Brooklyn Nets 21.9% Why Indiana Pacers is favoured Indiana Pacers's Elo (1269) is +66 over Brooklyn Nets (1203); high confidence. Recent: Indiana Pacers 4W-6L · Brooklyn Nets 4W-6L (last 10). Point differential per game: Indiana Pacers -0.6, Brooklyn Nets -4.9. Form depth Indiana Pacers: avg 105.9 pts scored, 106.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Brooklyn Nets: avg 92.9 pts scored, 97.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Indiana Pacers on a 3-match losing streak. +EV vs market home: model 78.1% vs market 60.9% (edge +28.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).