Indiana Pacers
vs Dallas Mavericks_

▸ Sealed before kickoff1.5h before kickoff2026-10-23 21:31 UTC

Moderate confidence

ratings essentially level · strong sample · leaning but close

Form & matchup

Indiana Pacers

Elo 1269

LLLWW

Dallas Mavericks

Elo 1304

WLLLL

vs San Antonio Spurs103–92
vs Oklahoma City Thunder83–85
@ Denver Nuggets98–133
vs Sacramento Kings91–103
@ San Antonio Spurs96–110

Rating edge

Dallas Mavericks +35

Confidence: 100%

Head to head

No prior meetings on file.

Rest days

Indiana Pacers

–

Dallas Mavericks

–

Model probability

v0.1.0-elo-logistic · 10/23/2026, 9:31:07 PM

Indiana Pacers

59.3%

Dallas Mavericks

40.7%

Game total

Over/Under 215.5 total points
Projected 205.9 pts
—
Model
26.8%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 220.5 total points
Projected 205.9 pts
—
Model
17.4%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 225.5 total points
Projected 205.9 pts
—
Model
10.4%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 230.5 total points
Projected 205.9 pts
—
Model
5.7%
Over
–
Under
–

Team totals

Home team over 105.5
Team μ 105.3
—
Model
49.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 110.5
Team μ 105.3
—
Model
31.9%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 115.5
Team μ 105.3
—
Model
17.7%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 120.5
Team μ 105.3
—
Model
8.4%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 105.5
Team μ 100.6
—
Model
32.7%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 110.5
Team μ 100.6
—
Model
18.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 115.5
Team μ 100.6
—
Model
8.7%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 120.5
Team μ 100.6
—
Model
3.5%
Over
–
Under
–

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Reasoning

Model probabilities
  Indiana Pacers 59.3% · Dallas Mavericks 40.7%

Why Indiana Pacers is favoured
  Dallas Mavericks's Elo (1304) is +35 over Indiana Pacers (1269); high confidence.
  Recent: Indiana Pacers 4W-6L · Dallas Mavericks 2W-8L (last 10).
  Point differential per game: Indiana Pacers -0.6, Dallas Mavericks -8.9.

Form depth
  Indiana Pacers: avg 105.9 pts scored, 106.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road).
  Dallas Mavericks: avg 95.7 pts scored, 104.6 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road).
  Indiana Pacers on a 3-match losing streak.
  Dallas Mavericks on a 3-match losing streak.

Rate-limited per match. Generation cost is shared across all visitors.

Indiana Pacersvs Dallas Mavericks_

Form & matchup

Indiana Pacers

Dallas Mavericks

Game total

Team totals

Reasoning

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Indiana Pacers
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