Toronto Raptors
vs Chicago Bulls_

▸ Sealed before kickoff13h before kickoff2026-10-21 10:31 UTC

High confidence

clear rating gap · strong sample · confident top pick

Form & matchup

Toronto Raptors

Elo 1539

WLLLL

Chicago Bulls

Elo 1269

WWWLW

@ Atlanta Hawks104–97
vs Golden State Warriors119–116
vs Los Angeles Lakers134–124
@ Golden State Warriors111–121
@ Los Angeles Lakers108–101

Rating edge

Toronto Raptors +270

Confidence: 100%

Head to head

No prior meetings on file.

Rest days

Toronto Raptors

–

Chicago Bulls

–

Model probability

v0.1.0-elo-logistic · 10/21/2026, 10:31:43 AM

Toronto Raptors

93.3%

Chicago Bulls

6.7%

Game total

Over/Under 215.5 total points
Projected 216.5 pts
—
Model
52.7%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 220.5 total points
Projected 216.5 pts
—
Model
39.9%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 225.5 total points
Projected 216.5 pts
—
Model
28.2%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 230.5 total points
Projected 216.5 pts
—
Model
18.5%
Over
–
Under
–

Team totals

Home team over 105.5
Team μ 108.3
—
Model
60.2%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 110.5
Team μ 108.3
—
Model
42.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 115.5
Team μ 108.3
—
Model
25.8%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 120.5
Team μ 108.3
—
Model
13.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 105.5
Team μ 108.2
—
Model
59.6%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 110.5
Team μ 108.2
—
Model
41.7%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 115.5
Team μ 108.2
—
Model
25.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 120.5
Team μ 108.2
—
Model
13.1%
Over
–
Under
–

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Reasoning

Model probabilities
  Toronto Raptors 93.3% · Chicago Bulls 6.7%

Why Toronto Raptors is favoured
  Toronto Raptors's Elo (1539) is +270 over Chicago Bulls (1269); high confidence.
  Recent: Toronto Raptors 3W-7L · Chicago Bulls 5W-5L (last 10).
  Point differential per game: Toronto Raptors -1.8, Chicago Bulls -4.5.

Form depth
  Toronto Raptors: avg 101.6 pts scored, 103.4 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road).
  Chicago Bulls: avg 112.1 pts scored, 116.6 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road).
  Toronto Raptors on a 2-match winning streak.

But — counter-arguments
  Chicago Bulls has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours Toronto Raptors on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.

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Toronto Raptorsvs Chicago Bulls_

Form & matchup

Toronto Raptors

Chicago Bulls

Game total

Team totals

Reasoning

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Toronto Raptors
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