Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Charlotte Hornets
To win
+$0.20
Total payout
$20.20
Joint prob
92.5%
Combined odds
1.01
Fair odds
1.08
Edge
-6.6%
Expected value: $-1.33 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 92.5% · fair market: 50.0% · edge: +84.9%
Model probabilities Brooklyn Nets 7.5% · Charlotte Hornets 92.5% Why Charlotte Hornets is favoured Charlotte Hornets's Elo (1642) is +439 over Brooklyn Nets (1203); high confidence. Recent: Brooklyn Nets 4W-6L · Charlotte Hornets 2W-8L (last 10). Point differential per game: Brooklyn Nets -4.9, Charlotte Hornets -9.5. Form depth Brooklyn Nets: avg 92.9 pts scored, 97.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Charlotte Hornets: avg 99.4 pts scored, 108.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Charlotte Hornets on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Brooklyn Nets has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Charlotte Hornets on Elo despite Brooklyn Nets's form.