Model probabilities Oklahoma City Thunder 82.9% · Denver Nuggets 17.1% Why Oklahoma City Thunder is favoured Oklahoma City Thunder's Elo (1820) is +122 over Denver Nuggets (1699); high confidence. Recent: Oklahoma City Thunder 2W-8L · Denver Nuggets 9W-1L (last 10). Point differential per game: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.3, Denver Nuggets +11.1. Form depth Oklahoma City Thunder: avg 113.4 pts scored, 122.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Denver Nuggets: avg 114.3 pts scored, 103.2 conceded per game (6/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Oklahoma City Thunder on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Denver Nuggets has a stronger recent record (90% vs 20%) — model favours Oklahoma City Thunder on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.