Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · New York Knicks
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
56.6%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.77
Edge
+3.6%
Expected value: +$0.71 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Spreads and totals shown for reference only — model probabilities above are for the moneyline outcome, not points margin.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.6% · fair market: 53.4% · edge: +5.9%
Model probabilities New York Knicks 56.6% · San Antonio Spurs 43.4% Why New York Knicks is favoured San Antonio Spurs's Elo (1890) is +49 over New York Knicks (1841); high confidence. Recent: New York Knicks 5W-5L · San Antonio Spurs 4W-6L (last 10). Point differential per game: New York Knicks +3.5, San Antonio Spurs -3.3. Form depth New York Knicks: avg 22.8 pts scored, 19.3 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). San Antonio Spurs: avg 113.4 pts scored, 116.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). San Antonio Spurs on a 2-match winning streak. +EV vs market home: model 56.6% vs market 53.4% (edge +5.9%, suggested Kelly +4.3% of bankroll).