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The Board›NBA · NBA Regular Season›Fixture File

Sat, May 23 · 00:30

▸ Fixture fileSat, May 23 · 00:30

San Antonio Spurs
vs Oklahoma City Thunder_

▸ Sealed before kickoff2.5h before kickoff2026-05-22 22:02 UTC· result settled — verifiable

Moderate confidence

ratings essentially level · strong sample · confident top pick

How the model did

Final

108 — 123

Oklahoma City Thunder won

✕ Model was wrong

Model assigned

32.7%

to oklahoma city thunder

Form & matchup

San Antonio Spurs

Elo 1877

WLLWL

@ Philadelphia 76ers121–118
@ New York Knicks98–117
@ Atlanta Hawks114–122
vs Phoenix Suns115–106
@ Sacramento Kings102–130

Oklahoma City Thunder

Elo 1820

LLWLL

@ Golden State Warriors116–144
vs Houston Rockets114–121
@ Houston Rockets117–110
vs Sacramento Kings94–106
@ Washington Wizards125–136

Rating edge

San Antonio Spurs +57

Confidence: 100%

Head to head

No prior meetings on file.

Rest days

San Antonio Spurs

–

Oklahoma City Thunder

–

Model probability

v0.1.0-elo-logistic · 5/22/2026, 10:02:05 PM

San Antonio Spurs

67.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder

32.7%

Game total

Over/Under 215.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
86.2%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 220.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
77.9%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 225.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
67.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 230.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
55.0%
Over
–
Under
–

Team totals

Home team over 105.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
86.4%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 110.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
74.0%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 115.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
57.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 120.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
39.6%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 105.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
80.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 110.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
65.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 115.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
47.8%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 120.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
30.5%
Over
–
Under
–

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Reasoning

Model probabilities
  San Antonio Spurs 67.3% · Oklahoma City Thunder 32.7%

Why San Antonio Spurs is favoured
  Elo essentially level (1853 vs 1858) — winner depends on context.
  Recent: San Antonio Spurs 4W-6L · Oklahoma City Thunder 2W-8L (last 10).
  Point differential per game: San Antonio Spurs -3.3, Oklahoma City Thunder -9.3.

Form depth
  San Antonio Spurs: avg 113.4 pts scored, 116.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road).
  Oklahoma City Thunder: avg 113.4 pts scored, 122.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road).
  San Antonio Spurs on a 2-match winning streak.
  Oklahoma City Thunder on a 2-match losing streak.

Rate-limited per match. Generation cost is shared across all visitors.

San Antonio Spursvs Oklahoma City Thunder_

How the model did

Form & matchup

San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City Thunder

Game total

Team totals

Reasoning

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San Antonio Spurs
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