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The Board›NBA · NBA Regular Season›Fixture File

Thu, May 21 · 00:30

▸ Fixture fileThu, May 21 · 00:30

Oklahoma City Thunder
vs San Antonio Spurs_

▸ Sealed before kickoff3.5h before kickoff2026-05-20 21:01 UTC· result settled — verifiable

Moderate confidence

ratings essentially level · strong sample · leaning but close

How the model did

Final

122 — 113

Oklahoma City Thunder won

✓ Model was right

Model assigned

54.4%

to oklahoma city thunder

Form & matchup

Oklahoma City Thunder

Elo 1820

LLWLL

@ Golden State Warriors116–144
vs Houston Rockets114–121
@ Houston Rockets117–110
vs Sacramento Kings94–106
@ Washington Wizards125–136

San Antonio Spurs

Elo 1877

WLLWL

@ Philadelphia 76ers121–118
@ New York Knicks98–117
@ Atlanta Hawks114–122
vs Phoenix Suns115–106
@ Sacramento Kings102–130

Rating edge

San Antonio Spurs +57

Confidence: 100%

Head to head

No prior meetings on file.

Rest days

Oklahoma City Thunder

–

San Antonio Spurs

–

Model probability

v0.1.0-elo-logistic · 5/20/2026, 9:01:36 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder

54.4%

San Antonio Spurs

45.6%

Game total

Over/Under 215.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
86.2%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 220.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
77.9%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 225.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
67.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Over/Under 230.5 total points
Projected 232.5 pts
—
Model
55.0%
Over
–
Under
–

Team totals

Home team over 105.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
80.3%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 110.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
65.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 115.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
47.8%
Over
–
Under
–
Home team over 120.5
Team μ 114.9
—
Model
30.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 105.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
86.4%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 110.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
74.0%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 115.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
57.5%
Over
–
Under
–
Away team over 120.5
Team μ 117.6
—
Model
39.6%
Over
–
Under
–

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Reasoning

Model probabilities
  Oklahoma City Thunder 54.4% · San Antonio Spurs 45.6%

Why Oklahoma City Thunder is favoured
  San Antonio Spurs's Elo (1879) is +47 over Oklahoma City Thunder (1832); high confidence.
  Recent: Oklahoma City Thunder 2W-8L · San Antonio Spurs 4W-6L (last 10).
  Point differential per game: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.3, San Antonio Spurs -3.3.

Form depth
  Oklahoma City Thunder: avg 113.4 pts scored, 122.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road).
  San Antonio Spurs: avg 113.4 pts scored, 116.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road).
  Oklahoma City Thunder on a 2-match losing streak.
  San Antonio Spurs on a 2-match winning streak.

But — counter-arguments
  San Antonio Spurs has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Oklahoma City Thunder on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.

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Oklahoma City Thundervs San Antonio Spurs_

How the model did

Form & matchup

Oklahoma City Thunder

San Antonio Spurs

Game total

Team totals

Reasoning

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Oklahoma City Thunder
vs San Antonio Spurs_