Model probabilities Oklahoma City Thunder 64.1% · San Antonio Spurs 35.9% Why Oklahoma City Thunder is favoured Elo essentially level (1852 vs 1858) — winner depends on context. Recent: Oklahoma City Thunder 2W-8L · San Antonio Spurs 4W-6L (last 10). Point differential per game: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.3, San Antonio Spurs -3.3. Form depth Oklahoma City Thunder: avg 113.4 pts scored, 122.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). San Antonio Spurs: avg 113.4 pts scored, 116.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Oklahoma City Thunder on a 2-match losing streak. San Antonio Spurs on a 2-match winning streak. But — counter-arguments San Antonio Spurs has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Oklahoma City Thunder on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap.