Sporting Clube de Braga scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Braga 51.2% · Draw 23.8% · Gil Vicente FC 25.0% Why Sporting Clube de Braga is favoured Sporting Clube de Braga's Elo (1500) is +25 over Gil Vicente FC (1475); medium confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Braga 3W-2D-2L · Gil Vicente FC 3W-2D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Braga +0.0, Gil Vicente FC +0.1. Form depth Sporting Clube de Braga: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Gil Vicente FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (Sporting Clube de Braga 0.9, Gil Vicente FC 1.0) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Braga 0W, 2D, Gil Vicente FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-1, 2-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.