Sporting Clube de Braga scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Braga 42.3% · Draw 29.4% · Gil Vicente FC 28.3% Why Sporting Clube de Braga is favoured Sporting Clube de Braga's Elo (1500) is +18 over Gil Vicente FC (1482); low confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Braga 0W-1D-0L · Gil Vicente FC 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Braga +0.0, Gil Vicente FC +1.0. Form depth Sporting Clube de Braga: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Gil Vicente FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Braga 0W, 2D, Gil Vicente FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-1, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.