SV 07 Elversberg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SV 07 Elversberg 45.3% · Draw 24.4% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 30.2% Why SV 07 Elversberg is favoured 1. FSV Mainz 05's Elo (1513) is +16 over SV 07 Elversberg (1498); low confidence. Recent: SV 07 Elversberg 3W-1D-3L · 1. FSV Mainz 05 3W-1D-3L (last 7). Goal differential per game: SV 07 Elversberg -0.4, 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.4. Form depth SV 07 Elversberg: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). 1. FSV Mainz 05: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 3/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (SV 07 Elversberg 1.8, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.