Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hamburger SV
To win
+$90.40
Total payout
$110.40
Joint prob
18.4%
Combined odds
5.52
Fair odds
5.44
Edge
+1.5%
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.00 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 8% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$0.20 on a $20 stake.
Joint probability uses the model's score-grid correlation for the away + btts pair (not independent). Other legs multiplied independently.
Expected value: +$3.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Eintracht Frankfurt scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 18.4% · fair market: 17.5% · edge: +5.2%
Model probabilities Eintracht Frankfurt 60.3% · Draw 21.3% · Hamburger SV 18.4% Why Eintracht Frankfurt is favoured Eintracht Frankfurt's Elo (1498) is +80 over Hamburger SV (1417); high confidence. Recent: Eintracht Frankfurt 2W-2D-3L · Hamburger SV 3W-0D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Eintracht Frankfurt -1.0, Hamburger SV -1.4. Form depth Eintracht Frankfurt: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Hamburger SV: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.9, Hamburger SV 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Eintracht Frankfurt 0W, 4D, Hamburger SV 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 59.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 60.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 18.4% vs market 17.5% (edge +5.2%, suggested Kelly +0.3% of bankroll). draw: model 21.3% vs market 20.3% (edge +5.1%, suggested Kelly +0.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.