SV Werder Bremen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SV Werder Bremen 37.6% · Draw 22.3% · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 40.1% Why TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is favoured TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's Elo (1530) is +87 over SV Werder Bremen (1443); high confidence. Recent: SV Werder Bremen 3W-3D-1L · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3W-0D-4L (last 7). Goal differential per game: SV Werder Bremen +0.1, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0.0. Form depth SV Werder Bremen: avg 2.1 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). TSG 1899 Hoffenheim on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.1 total goals (SV Werder Bremen 2.1, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SV Werder Bremen 0W, 1D, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-2, 1-3. Calibration Raw model: 39.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.