Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · 1. FC Union Berlin
To win
+$36.00
Total payout
$56.00
Joint prob
47.1%
Combined odds
2.80
Fair odds
2.12
Edge
+31.8%
Expected value: +$6.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.37 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 12% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$4.96 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
1. FC Union Berlin scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 47.1% · fair market: 34.5% · edge: +36.3%
Model probabilities 1. FC Union Berlin 47.1% · Draw 24.5% · 1. FC Köln 28.5% Why 1. FC Union Berlin is favoured 1. FC Union Berlin's Elo (1457) is +13 over 1. FC Köln (1445); high confidence. Recent: 1. FC Union Berlin 1W-3D-3L · 1. FC Köln 2W-2D-3L (last 7). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Union Berlin -1.7, 1. FC Köln -0.4. Form depth 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.6 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). 1. FC Köln: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). 1. FC Union Berlin on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (1. FC Union Berlin 1.2, 1. FC Köln 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — 1. FC Union Berlin 0W, 3D, 1. FC Köln 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 0-1, 3-2. +EV vs market home: model 47.1% vs market 34.5% (edge +36.3%, suggested Kelly +17.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.