Borussia Mönchengladbach scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Mönchengladbach 37.8% · Draw 24.0% · SC Paderborn 07 38.2% Why SC Paderborn 07 is favoured SC Paderborn 07's Elo (1517) is +40 over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1477); low confidence. Recent: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W-0D-6L · SC Paderborn 07 2W-2D-3L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Borussia Mönchengladbach -1.6, SC Paderborn 07 -0.4. Form depth Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.6 goals scored, 3.1 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). SC Paderborn 07: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.4, SC Paderborn 07 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W, 1D, SC Paderborn 07 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-3. Calibration Raw model: 40.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.