TSG 1899 Hoffenheim scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 21.8% · Draw 20.9% · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 57.3% Why Bayer 04 Leverkusen is favoured Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Elo (1671) is +140 over TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (1530); high confidence. Recent: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2W-0D-4L · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4W-1D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5, Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.2. Form depth TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Bayer 04 Leverkusen: avg 2.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Bayer 04 Leverkusen on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.2 total goals (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.7, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0W, 1D, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-2, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 26.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 21.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.