VfB Stuttgart scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities VfB Stuttgart 68.4% · Draw 18.9% · Borussia Mönchengladbach 12.7% Why VfB Stuttgart is favoured VfB Stuttgart's Elo (1619) is +142 over Borussia Mönchengladbach (1477); high confidence. Recent: VfB Stuttgart 4W-1D-4L · Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W-0D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: VfB Stuttgart +0.3, Borussia Mönchengladbach -2.0. Form depth VfB Stuttgart: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach: avg 1.3 goals scored, 3.3 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). Borussia Mönchengladbach on a 6-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (VfB Stuttgart 2.5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — VfB Stuttgart 0W, 1D, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-3, 1-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 66.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 68.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.