FC Schalke 04 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Schalke 04 40.1% · Draw 24.0% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 35.8% Why FC Schalke 04 is favoured 1. FSV Mainz 05's Elo (1513) is +35 over FC Schalke 04 (1478); low confidence. Recent: FC Schalke 04 1W-2D-2L · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2W-1D-2L (last 5). Goal differential per game: FC Schalke 04 -0.4, 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.6. Form depth FC Schalke 04: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). 1. FSV Mainz 05: avg 2.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (FC Schalke 04 1.4, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments 1. FSV Mainz 05 has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours FC Schalke 04 on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — FC Schalke 04 0W, 3D, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 1-0, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 42.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context 1. FSV Mainz 05 has 1 more day of rest (FC Schalke 04 47d, 1. FSV Mainz 05 48d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.